When will the demand for oil outstrip the world's capacity to produce it? 
A big question that no one can answer precisely. 

   But equally critical is the question concerning what will happen when the current buyers' market for oil one day becomes a sellers' market. 

   L.B. Magoon, of the U.S. Geological Survey, says that while the world will not run out of sources for producing energy, it is assured that some time in the next 20 to 40 years, the world will run out of a most convenient form of energy that today fuels nearly all the world's mechanized transportation.  If the world is not prepared, oil will become so precious that prices will rise astronomically and those who have not converted to some form of alternative energy will be left high and dry. 

   "The Oil Age will not end from lack of oil," insists Dr. Maurice Albertson, founder of Hydrogen Now!, a non-profit organization established to promote the use of alternatives to fossil fuels.  "It will only end when there is a better source of energy." 

   Alan Grant, Director General of the International Association of Oil & Gas Producers (OGP) acknowledged environmental concerns over hydrocarbons in an address to the European Parliament and the European Energy Foundation in Strasbourg, France on July 3, 2001.  While Grant is convinced that implementation of new technology and improvements to the distribution network will make hydrocarbons available into the second half of the 21st century, he says that member companies of OGP and EUROPI are already playing a part in the development of solar power, fuel cells and biofuels as alternative and cleaner forms of energy. 

   To prove his point about the coming "big rollover," Magoon explains that today the world produces 75 million barrels of oil a day or 27 billion barrels a year. 

   The United States produces 8 million barrels a day and imports 11 million barrels, or 58% of the oil used each day in this country.  Of the 6 billion consumers of oil in the world, 300 million or 5% are Americans.  That 5% consumes 26% of the world's oil. 

   According to Magoon, the big rollover is inevitable because, in the last five years while worldwide usage was at 27 billion barrels a year, only three billion new barrels were discovered each year.  Only one barrel was replaced for every nine barrels used.  There are no indications that it will ever be possible to change this ratio, according to Magoon. 

   On the other hand, Alan Grant, representing OGP, says oil supplies will be sufficient for at least another 40 years and supplies of gas could last for 60 years. 

   Ed Feinberg, of Texaco's strategic management group, points to the USGS world resource survey that predicts the oil supply will increase for another 40 years before beginning a gradual decline.  He is in agreement with Albertson's hypothesis that the Oil Age will not come to an end because of a lack of oil, but rather because better sources of energy will become available and viable. 

   Magoon says that while nobody can be sure, those willing to forecast believe the rollover is likely to occur between 2003 and 2020.  This is a time frame well within the lifetimes of most people now living on the planet earth and counting on oil as a major energy source. 

   "We must recognize the problem and begin to deal with it," Magoon advises.  "If we don't, it's likely to be a wild ride."